Friday, February 5, 2010

If it's so cold in so many places, how can January 2010 be the hottest on record?

And January this year was the hottest globally since the University of Alabama at Huntsville has been measuring it by satellite.

Now admittedly, that has been for only 30 odd years, but this is a data set that, unlike NASA's GISS, you can trust.

So what's going on?

Dr Roy Spencer from the UAH says that the temperature anomaly is primarily due to high sea surface temperatures.

And apparently the planet has recently experienced its warmest El Nino since the very severe one of 1998.

However, Bob Tisdale goes on to say that this peaked 5 weeks ago and that the "NINO3.4 SST anomalies [have] been dropping like a stone" since.

So are we in store for a repeat of 2007? That year started with a January that is now the second warmest on record.

Every thing seemed set for a record breaking hot year. The UK Met Office said so in early January:
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.

(Though of course, we now know how much we can trust the Met Office )

Here's what actually happened in 2007:
But the Met Office was wrong in 2007.   Instead of breaking the temperature record, temperatures plummeted nearly 0.8C to below normal after El Nino quickly faded – as you can see in the graph below.

Hmmm, as the El Nino quickly faded.

And then 2008 was cooler than 2007, and 2009 cooler still.

Posted via email from Garth's posterous

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