I cannot vouch for the following. But I have had sent to me what I am told are the results of Labor polling over the past six weeks of the 40 most marginal seats, plus 15 most likely to be affected by the “super profits” tax debate. I’ve been asked not to reveal the specific two-party preferred votes, but will say the following:
- Of all the marginals under 4%, the Coalition is ahead in 30 and Labor in just 10.
- The swings in some of the safer - but “super profits” tax-affected seats are astonishing, The Western Australian seat of Brand, for instance, held by Parliamentary Secretary Gary Gray with a supposedly healthy margin of more than 6 per cent, would fall easily to the Coalition.
- Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith is struggling to hang on in Perth.
- Bye bye, Maxine McKew.
- Lindsay, the seat that takes in Penrith, will fall the same way, and almost as decisively.
- The Coalition could win four seats in South Australia alone.
- Some huge anti-Labor swings in NSW and Queensland seats.