Friday, October 16, 2009

Climate sceptic makes accurate predictions while computer models didn't

A skeptic got it right

Warmist theories about CO2 generated NO accurate predictions of 21st century climate changes but a skeptic basing his predictions solely on long-term regularities in ocean current changes scored several bullseyes. Accurate predictions are of course the acid test of any scientific theory. An interesting communication and an interesting document from distinguished meteorologist Bill Gray below:

At NOAA's 21st Climate Workshop in Huntsville, AL in 1996 I presented a paper titled "Forecast of Global Circulation Characteristics in the Next 25-30 Years." We are now 13 years along the way to this paper's verification. All the major features that were predicted are on target.

This 4-page paper's 25-30 year prediction (see below) was based on the known and characteristic multi-decadal changes in the Atlantic Ocean's circulation. It assumed a multi-decadal continuation of the positive change in the Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation (THC) which occurred in 1995. These changes in the Atlantic Ocean THC were predicted to continue and to result in the following changes in global weather features which have taken place during 1996-2009 in comparison to the similar observed parameter circulation features during the earlier 25-year period of 1970-1994.

1. More Northern Hemisphere blocking patterns - weaker North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

2. Fewer El Nino activity (cooler ENSO conditions)

3. Increased Sahel rainfall

4. Much more Atlantic major hurricane activity

5. Small decrease in global mean surface temperature.

These and other predicted conditions are, so far, occurring and beginning to lead to verification of my forecast. This 1996 forecast was made from changing ocean circulation features alone. CO2 increases played no role in this forecast. Known natural climate features were unquestionably the dominant processes in causing such parameter alterations. If CO2 gas increases played any role at all its influence was in the noise level and undetectable. Please read the write-up of 13 years ago:

For the rest of the post, go here.

Posted via email from Garth's posterous

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